The next cycle of Portuguese real estate will not be driven by tourism

For many years, the growth of the real estate market was Portuguese closely linked to international tourism. The increase in travel, local accommodation, the demand for second homes and the arrival of foreign retirees helped to increase the value of assets practically all over the country.

But this cycle is beginning to show signs of maturity.

Today, the great opportunities for real estate may be born elsewhere.

Savills´ latest study on the new geography of production shows that companies are reorganising their supply chains and bringing production closer to consumer markets. Competitiveness is no longer just about costs. It is now about stability, available energy, infrastructure, digital connectivity and ability to execute.

Portugal today brings together practically all these factors.

And this could profoundly change the real estate market.

When we talk about data centers, technological factories, logistics hubs or artificial intelligence companies, we are not just talking about industrial investment. We are talking about thousands of qualified workers, new offices, business parks, housing, international schools, hotels, commerce, restaurants and services.

The example of Sines is perhaps the most evident. The development of the Start Campus, the new submarine cables and the projects linked to renewable energy is transforming a traditionally industrial city into a new European technological hub. The need for housing, urban equipment and infrastructure grows at the same pace as new investments arrive.

But Sines will not be the only case.

The same phenomenon may occur in several parts of the country where there are good logistical connections, energy availability and capacity to host new economic activities.

This transformation also represents an important change for the real estate market itself.

For a long time, a large part of the international demand focused on leisure housing or second homes. The next cycle may be driven by people who come to work, undertake, research or manage international operations installed in Portugal.

This makes the market more sustainable.

The valorization no longer depends exclusively on tourism or seasonal demand and is now based on job creation, the installation of companies and the growth of the real economy.

Naturally, this will require different responses. More housing supply, faster licensing processes, better urban planning and greater capacity of municipalities to keep up with private investment.

The Savills study leaves an important message: the new economy is choosing countries that offer stability, talent and ability to execute.

Portugal seems to meet these conditions.

The challenge now is to ensure that the real estate market keeps up with this transformation.

Because the next big boost in real estate may Portuguese no longer come from tourists.

It may come from companies that choose Portugal to produce, innovate and grow.